So, that’s OK then. It is always comforting to see that 5G is about to take off and that the IoT – likewise – is ready for primetime. It reminds you of the scene in the Life of Brian, when the crowd is so big that the characters at the back cannot hear what is being said.
“What did he say,” asks one.
“He said ‘blessed are the meek,’” says the other.
“Oh good,” says the first, “I’m glad they’re getting something. They haven’t had it easy.”
We are, likewise, glad that 5G and the IoT are taking off soon, they haven’t had it easy either.
There are still many questions about 5G and the IoT that – you would think – makes predicting growth over the next few years almost impossible, even foolhardy.
First, where are we actually ‘at’ when it comes to 5G? The answer must surely be ‘at the very early stages’ of roll outs. Many operators have not nailed down the business models and those that have are concentrating on the enterprise market, not consumers. And we are certainly not on the brink of 5G connected cars. Yet this study suggests that 70% of this revenue will come from value added services.
Operators are still not in the right mind-set to provide value added services with 5G and the study says they will become ‘crucial in the automotive and smart cities sectors.’
Secondly, the automotive sector, when you look at what many have touting as the ‘foreseeable future’ has recently hit a major roadblock. Investment has dried up and automotive focused funds have had to close because investors are investing in projects that have earlier returns.
This sector’s outlook is not being helped by friendly hackers from McAfee altering road signs and fooling Tesla cars into going too fast in 30 mile an hour areas (which was a – successful – publicity stunt, that camera is no longer in Teslas).
Without doubt we are entering a decade of enormous innovation, innovation at a scale that has not been witnessed before. By the end of the decade we might be looking at remote surgery, for some. We might be looking at autonomous cars, for some and we might be looking at the acceptance of VR and AR over 5G, for many, in some areas.
Like all big changes in technology, results take a lot longer to become ‘normal’ than anyone believes. It is a mistake that we make over and over again. What we, in the industry, see as becoming mainstream within two years, normally takes 10.
So, change the date to 2030 and we would probably think that was a more sensible prediction.