The number of SVOD [subscription video on demand] homes is forecast to reach 428 million across 200 countries by 2021, up from 177 million in 2015 and an expected 248 million by end-2016 – and much of that will be driven by Asia-Pacific, says Digital TV Research.
The total will grow by 70 million in 2016 alone, according to the analyst firm’s Global SVOD Forecasts report.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, that while North America supplies most of those subscribers at present, but Asia Pacific will become the top region by 2019.
“This comes despite Netflix being unlikely to secure direct access in China and only making a limited impact in other major population centers such as India and Indonesia,” he said. “There are some large SVOD platforms in Asia Pacific that have been active for some time, especially via mobile phones.”
The US (127 million subscribers by 2021) will remain the SVOD market leader by some distance, although China (74 million in 2021 – up by 34 million on 2016) will record strong growth to close the gap.
The report forecasts that Netflix will have almost 118 million paying subs by 2021 – or 27.5% of the global total. Although the number of Netflix’s international subscribers will overtake its US ones in 2018, the US will still contribute 44% of its subs by 2021.
Subscription revenues for Netflix will double from $6.37 billion in 2015 to $13.14 billion in 2021. Despite growth elsewhere, North America will still contribute 52% of its total in 2021.
“We estimate that Netflix has distribution partnerships with 79 pay TV, telco or mobile operators across 44 countries. These partnerships include multinational deals with Liberty Global, Millicom/Tigo and Telia,” Murray said.
Global SVOD revenues will reach $32.18 billion in 2021; 18 times the $1.74 billion recorded in 2010 and up by $20 billion on the $12.2 billion recorded in 2015. Revenues will grow by $5 billion in 2016 alone to take the total to $17.46 billion.