Pay-TV revenues are projected to peak globally at $202 billion in 2017, but the subsequent decline will be cushioned by revenue growth in regions like Asia-Pacific.
That’s according to the latest Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts report from Digital TV Research covering 138 countries, which forecasts that pay-TV revenues will decline in 33 countries between 2016 and 2022.
Regionally, the big plunges over the next five years will happen in North America (by a huge $12 billion) and Western Europe (down $566 million). Eastern Europe will also see a decline in pay-TV revenues, but only by $28 million.
That said, North America will still command 47.5% of global pay TV revenues – or $94.82 billion – in 2022, although that is way down from the 58.3% recorded in 2010.
The outlook is considerably brighter for Asia-Pacific, which will record a $5.75 billion increase in pay-TV revenues to $40 billion in 2022. Asia Pacific overtook Western Europe in 2013, and will be larger than the whole of Europe by the end of this year.
Revenues will rocket by 57% in Sub-Saharan Africa (up by $2.4 billion to $6.59 billion) and by 17% in Middle East & North Africa (up by $590 million to $4.12 billion) between 2016 and 2022. Sub-Saharan Africa passed MENA in 2016 and will overtake Eastern Europe in 2021.
“Revenues will more than double for 13 countries between 2016 and 2022,” said Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “India will add the most revenues by some distance, with China also recording impressive gains. Asia will account for seven of the top 10 gainers.”
Globally, the decline will be relatively gentle, as revenues will still be as high as $200 billion in 2022.
Breaking down the numbers by pay-TV segment, global analog cable revenues will fall by $8.77 billion between 2016 and 2022 – not surprising given the switch-off of most of the remaining subscribers. However, digital cable TV revenues will also fall by $3.14 billion. This is due mainly to subscribers converting from standalone status to bundles, which provide higher overall revenues for operators but lower TV ones. IPTV revenues will climb by $2.34 billion.
Satellite TV will add more than any other platform – $6.66 billion – to reach $89 billion. Satellite TV (DTH and DBS) revenues will overtake total cable TV revenues in 2020, having passed digital cable a year earlier.